The New York Yankees gave up key players to acquire Juan Soto in a trade with the San Diego Padres.
The Yankees made a gamble by giving up key prospects, which is why it’s important that they do everything possible to extend Soto long-term. Soto’s retirement will go a long way in determining whether or not the move was worth it. If Soto re-signs, the Yankees will have acquired a 25-year-old superstar who could be the cornerstone of the franchise over the next decade. If they don’t, they will have traded several starting pitchers and prospects for a one-year rental. Now that Shohei Ohtani has signed his historic deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the market has been set and the fallout can begin, starting with new deals for current free agents and extension negotiations for future free agents. Juan Soto is perhaps the highest profile candidate for an extension, and now that Ohtani has signed, we can start talking about what kind of salary and length of contract Soto could get. Shohei Ohtani’s free agency was one of the most anticipated events in recent sports history. Now that Ohtani’s deal has been completed, the rest of the free agent market will be in flux and could see progress in future deals as well. Players in the 2023 free agency class and future extension candidates also wanted to see what Ohtani’s market would look like, as it could give them leverage in negotiations. It may not have gone quite as planned. Because Ohtani signed such a unique contract with a significant amount of deferred money, something many players are unwilling to do, Ohtani’s contract may not play as large a role in negotiations as previously expected. However, Ohtani’s contract can still serve as a general guideline. Soto has an offensive style of play that should age well. Because he doesn’t rely on athleticism, his physical decline won’t hit him as hard as other players. His generative perspective will likely be the last aspect of his game to decline as he ages. While he will lose some power and bat speed, his overall contact skills should remain solid, above average, if not elite. These aspects of his game, along with his young age, suggest that a long-term contract will likely age better than most other contracts signed for a decade or more. The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium could help Soto maintain power in the twilight of his career. Considering Soto is only 25 years old and has an offensive game that should age smoothly, it’s worth the Yankees adding additional years to reach a contract that reflects Soto’s value while keeping the AAV reasonable. Since contracts typically increase in value every year and the salary cap increases as well, this deal will look much better in the future than it did right after signing. Let’s start by establishing some preliminary guidelines. Soto is unlikely to accept an extension of less than $500 million in total value. Scott Boras will likely believe he can get Soto for $600 million on the open market. Soto wants long-term guarantees and the Yankees should provide them. The longer the contract lasts, the better it will be for the Yankees, as the average annual value and luxury tax will be reduced. Because Soto is so young, a contract with a term of twelve, thirteen, or even fifteen years will not be seriously detrimental to the team. The final years may still be tough, but they won’t represent a sunk cost, as Soto’s bat should still be effective and he will likely continue to walk at an elite level.The Yankees are expected to offer Soto a 15-year contract with an AAV of $39 million for a total value of $585 million. This provides Soto with long-term security, hands-down gives him the most lucrative contract in MLB history in terms of real money, and keeps the AAV manageable for the team.
Leave a Reply