If Aston Villa can achieve consistency in both performances and results in the New Year, they could easily rank among the top four or five teams in the Premier League by the end of May.
Although their league form has dipped compared to last season, which has left many fans doubtful about a top-six finish or Champions League qualification, these concerns aren’t unique to Villa—they’re shared by several clubs in the same competitive bracket. Currently, Villa have accumulated 10 fewer points after 16 games than they did at this stage last season, when they reached 39 points by the halfway mark. For context, if Unai Emery’s side can secure wins against Manchester City, Newcastle, and Brighton, they’ll finish the first half of the season with 34 points.
However, comparing this season to last year doesn’t hold much value, as the league table is incredibly tight going into Christmas. Just six points separate 13th-placed Manchester United from fourth-placed Nottingham Forest. Villa’s recent 2-1 loss to Forest, where they conceded late, was compounded by a couple of contentious decisions that went against them.
To illustrate how fine the margins are, if Villa had defended better during stoppage time against Bournemouth and VAR had deemed Elliot Anderson’s tackle on Matty Cash—leading to Forest’s winner—a foul, they’d currently sit in fourth place. Despite some defensive vulnerabilities, Villa have made a strong start overall and remain well-positioned to contend for Champions League qualification, particularly given their solid performance in the Champions League league phase.
They are tantalizingly close to achieving what would have been considered an ideal scenario at the start of the season. While there is room for improvement, Villa remain firmly in the hunt for a top-five finish—a position likely to secure Champions League football this season. According to Opta, there’s a 98.5% chance the Premier League will be awarded an extra Champions League spot due to England’s strong UEFA coefficient performance in recent years.
Although the Premier League experienced a dip in its coefficient last season, this campaign looks more promising, with Chelsea potentially winning the Europa Conference League and no English teams dropping from the Europa League. Liverpool have been dominant in the Champions League group stage, Arsenal sit third in the league, and Villa hold fifth with two domestic games remaining. Meanwhile, Manchester United remain unbeaten in the Europa League, and Tottenham are well-positioned to advance further in the competition.
Villa’s optimism stems from their exceptional record under Emery over the past 25 months, during which they’ve been the fourth-best team in the country. Given their strong trajectory and the competition’s openness, it’s not unreasonable to believe Villa can secure a return to the Champions League.
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