When Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers — after the team had already added Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract — L.A. found himself with his two biggest fish in free agency. market.
A number of teams had one or both of the new Dodgers high on their target list. What should front offices do now?Here’s a look at how I would proceed if I were leading the finalist teams for Yamamoto (and in many cases Ohtani), who now have to look in a different direction. These Plan Bs are based on what I hear these teams are already doing or considering, along with my thoughts on their best options. Teams are listed in order of current roster quality according to FanGraphs’ depth charts. The Yankees reportedly offered Yamamoto a 10-year contract worth $300 million, and it seems certain they will continue with starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is the only reliable playoff starter among their current rotation options, with Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes the other projected starters and fifth place a question mark. New York could also add two starters and create some competition, as all three secondary options behind Cole are unlikely to make more than 25 starts and/or produce consistently.I don’t think the top free agent options meet what the Yankees need yet: Blake Snell has too many Rodon-type risks on him, Jordan Montgomery will cost about the same as Rodon last season and offer less upside, while he is he’s also not the type of Yankee pitcherthey targeted (i.e. younger or with better raw stuff). After those two, the remaining free agents are middle-of-the-rotation guys, and New York needs more impact. While the Yankees’ response was fairly simple, the Jays’ situation is a little more difficult to decipher. The Jays have five proven big league starters under contract (Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Alek Manoah) and their top candidate is a starter in the upper minors who will debut in 2024 (Ricky Tiedemann). So the Jays’ involvement in the Yamamoto sweepstakes suggests they don’t have much confidence in Manoah to give them massive quality innings, and it suggests they still want to add to this group. Tiedemann could also have pitches limited to innings in shorter stints with Manoah being treated as the sixth starter, so Toronto needs another solid option. I could see Toronto shopping the ~$20M AAV market for Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman or Lucas Giolito, moving down a notch for Sean Manaea or reuniting with Hyun Jin Ryu.The other major issue the Blue Jays will need to address is their need for a late-inning reliever to pair with Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson, but it doesn’t have to be a left-handed hitter given the presence of Genesis Cabrera and Tim. Mayza. Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson, Yariel Rodriguez (who some teams consider a starter), and Hector Neris are all slightly different versions of how they approach this problem for an AAV of around $7-11 million. The Phillies’ pursuit of Yamamoto was not surprising because he is a spectacular and expensive pitcher and is Dave Dombrowski’s biggest move, and a bit surprising because it meant adding an ace before the contract expiration of Zack Wheeler, who expires after the 2024 season. With Yamamoto no longer in office, extending Wheeler makes sense. The youth will come from within, with Andrew Painter and Mick Abel as potential impact pitchers in about a year. So far we’ve only focused on Yamamoto’s pivots, but Philadelphia has a more pressing problem. With Rhys Hoskins a free agent after missing all of last season, Bryce Harper a full-time first baseman and Kyle Schwarber now a designated hitter, the three weakest spots on the roster are all in the outfield. Johan Rojas is a defensive specialist who plays in midfield for the league minimum and has clear upside as an everyday player. Brandon Marsh in left field had a big 2023 powered by a .397 BABIP, but he remains a solid, cheap option. Right fielder Nick Castellanos is making $20 million for each of the next three seasons and has posted just 0.2 WAR over the last two seasons combined; he is a very good hitter, but a poor fielder, and is entering his age 32 season.There’s a reason the Castellanos deal is said to be a great trade for Mike Trout. Center fielder Justin Crawford, the Phillies’ best player, follows as the starter, but may not show up until the 2026 season. Despite the need, there is no easy path to an upgrade, so I think the Phillies can hold their own when it comes to of big moves. Like the Phillies, the Mets’ first move shouldn’t be a flashy signing: They should instead extend their star player, also set to hit free agency after 2024, Pete Alonso. He’ll make over $20 million in his final year of arbitration thanks to his big counting stats, so his trade value is mediocre: something like a prospect ranked in the 101-200 area of a prospect list. David Stearns’ GM style typically doesn’t like to commit more than five years, starting in his age-30 season, to a right-handed first baseman who isn’t an MVP candidate, but this is the right move for where the Mets are . right away.Additionally, the Mets are treading water, not planning to give long-term deals to older players, instead signing short-term deals to complementary players or occasionally pursuing young free agents. That makes sense in a multi-year battle plan, with about $75 million in expiring contracts and another $50 million less paid to other teams after next season, meaning there’s still about $100 million left after a Alonso’s extension. . The top of the farm system, bolstered by the addition of deadline prospects, will also debut in New York in late 2024 or early 2025 and could free up more money to spend if these players can fill a full-time role. This wave of prospects is more potent with infielders Jett Williams, Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna and Kevin Parada, as well as outfielders Drew Gilbert, Alex Ramirez and Ryan Clifford. Right-handed pitchers Christian Scott and Blade Tidwell could also be factors.I believe the Mets could add a starting pitcher, a left-handed reliever and a right-handed outfielder this winter.There are plenty of options for the starting pitcher spot. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery would demand years/money this winter that would not fit the profile of the Mets. Marcus Stroman and Shota Imanaga may be too old and need too many years. Lucas Giolito could potentially fit, but the minor league roster that includes Yariel Rodriguez, Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, James Paxton, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Frankie Montas and Brandon Woodruff fits what the Mets plan to do this winter , more sense.I don’t think Josh Hader fits their profile this winter, with backups like Matt Moore or Aroldis Chapman being more likely options. Harrison Bader and Tommy Pham make sense for the outfield position depending on what type of durability and defense they want to add. None of these backup players or outfielders should require a contract longer than two years.
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