The Denver Broncos’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread after their loss in Detroit.
The good news is that the Broncos face the New England Patriots at home this week.The Patriots have a good defense but a lackluster offense. This is a winnable game that the Broncos will need to capitalize on if they have any chance of returning to the top of the wild card race.As we continue our Broncos-Patriots preview, let’s take a look at three critical numbers the Broncos need to exploit to emerge victorious and earn eight wins for the first time since 2016. If the Broncos can win the turnover battle, they win the game. The Patriots were unable to overcome even a -1 (minus) turnover differential. In games where the Patriots are even or at least +1 in turnover differential, they are 3-4, while in games they are 0-7 when they are -1 or worse.New England doesn’t have the offense needed to overcome that deficit. The Patriots have a good defense that can keep the score close, but with extra opportunities for the Broncos’ offense, they won’t be able to keep up. The Broncos need to be efficient on offense and not turn the ball over. Even if Denver can’t get the ball away, the Patriots are beatable.Fortunately, the Patriots have turned the ball over in every game except one this season. They spit it out multiple times in six of those games. The Patriots will likely start quarterback Bailey Zappe for the rest of the season. Regardless of whether he’s an upgrade over Mac Jones, Zappe is sensitive to pressure.In games that Zappe has started over the past two seasons, the Patriots have lost when he has been pressured at nearly 15% or more. When that percentage is close to 10% or less, they have won.The Broncos need to step up their pass rush and chase Zappe. The pressure should lead to the aforementioned turnover and much-needed win. The good news is that Denver’s defense has been pressured over 20% over the last five games. If the Broncos can score 20 points in this game, victory is almost certain. The Patriots have scored more than 20 points in just two games this season.Once again, New England has a weak offense and will be missing two first-team players: running back Rhamondre Stevenson and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. If the Broncos are efficient on offense and don’t turn the ball over, they have a good chance of winning this game. Plus, the Broncos should take every point they can get. There is justification for making field goals rather than going for them on fourth down. If you get 20 points in this game, victory is almost certain. It doesn’t matter if most of those points come from the kicking game.
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